What’s next for home prices in Canada?

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“And in fact, in most of those markets, from what I’ve seen it looks like we’re still basically at pre-pandemic levels. If you see a big increase in unemployment, that would be a harbinger of a more pronounced retraction in terms of pricing – but I think the absence of that is probably a suggestion that we’re going to see at least a moderate contraction, if anything.”

It’s also important to apply nuance to particular regions, Lancastle said, with certain areas within those regions seeing higher activity than others – and the popularity of specific property types also rising and falling.

“You can’t even use Southern Ontario as a single market,” he said. “You’ve got the GTA [Greater Toronto Area], which is going to be different again to a place like Peterborough, which saw huge gains. Then you have to further say, ‘Well, where’s the contraction in the GTA? Was it in the condo market? Is it in single-family homes? Is it in the higher-priced stuff or is it in the mid-priced or more entry-level stuff?’

“That’s the biggest thing. You have to look at not only prices, but also the amount of transactions to truly understand [the market].”

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