What will happen to the Canada housing market in 2024?

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“We believe that the ‘great adjustment’ to tolerable, mid-single-digit borrowing costs will have a firm grip on our collective consciousness after only modest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada,” said Soper.

Home prices are projected to rise in all major markets in Canada next year and Calgary is forecast to have the highest increases. Notably, Calgary continued an upward trend in its home prices even as prices declined in other cities during the second half of 2023.

A new normal in the housing market

In the first two quarters of 2024, home prices are forecast to see quarterly gains as more increases are expected for the second half of the year. This will follow anticipated interest rate cuts by the central bank.

The aggregate home price in Canada is expected to be 3.3% higher in Q1 2024 compared to Q1 2023. Then, it will be 0.2% higher year-over-year by the second quarter. In Q3 2024, the prices are projected to be 3.3% higher year-over-year. In Q4 2024, it is expected that the national aggregate price will be 5.5% higher year-over-year.

By the end of 2024, the report expects that home prices will climb back to their pandemic peak previously reached in Q1 2022.

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