The Southern Georgian Bay cottage market is currently balanced, which is expected to remain largely unchanged through the remainder of 2023. However, a surplus of inventory is likely to become available in the tail end of the year, as mortgage renewals may cause those that do not qualify at higher rates to sell their property – skewing the market towards buyers. Over the last year, the majority of buyers in the region consisted of families, couples and/or retirees from the Southern Georgian Bay area or the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The trend of interprovincial migration is still present in the region, albeit moving at a much steadier pace.

Average price in the Southern Georgian Bay cottage market decreased by 18.5 per cent year-over-year (from $1,069,105 in Q1 2022 to $870,899 in Q1 2023). Average number of sales decreased by 39.65 per cent year-over-year (from 512 in 2022 Q1 to 309 in 2023 Q1). Despite a slow start to the year, the spring market – and the increased traffic it brings – is likely to bolster activity in the coming weeks resulting in an anticipated 4.5 per cent increase in number of sales over the remainder of 2023. Meanwhile, average residential sale price is anticipated to decrease by 1.5 per cent.

Over the next several years and as a result of the greatest intergenerational transfer of wealth, the Southern Georgian Bay area anticipates an increase of demand in the market, from buyers looking to retire or invest in the market, as a result of these inheritances.

“Our market is unique in that it offers baby boomers entering retirement with a refuge from the chaos of urban living, while still remaining relatively close to centres like the GTA. Meanwhile, new generations of families and couples may find it much more accessible to invest in a recreational market under these circumstances,” says Blair Thompson, Broker and owner of RE/MAX Four Seasons Realty.