“So I think that’s all in the right direction. I think policies in the past have been more directed at demand, but what we really need is more supply and so the fact that Ontario is really trying to tackle this issue is important – and that’s to be welcomed.”

CMHC examines population- and economic-growth scenarios

Two additional scenarios and their possible implications for 2030 were examined by CMHC in its recent report: firstly, a low-economic-growth scenario, in which inflation remains above the Bank of Canada’s target rate and productivity-growth is subdued, and secondly a high-population-growth scenario in which federal government immigration targets are maintained past their current end date of 2025.

In the first scenario, the central bank’s policy rate would bottom out at 3%, rather than the 2.5% envisaged in CMHC’s baseline scenario, with consumer demand remaining weaker and a 5.7% mortgage rate prevailing.

Those factors, acceding to CMHC, would “lower the demand for housing directly and raise the cost of purchasing a home.”

Meanwhile, in the high-population-growth scenario, Canada’s population would number over 44 million by 2030, meaning each year would see annual immigration levels of between 600,000 and 700,000 people. That would result in a situation likely to “put upward pressure on house prices,” while having a more limited impact on income per household, according to CMHC, “because immigrants may not all be in high-earning occupations.”