“One of the important reasons why we held our policy rate of 5% is that we know that those renewals are coming,” he said. “So we know that there’s more to come from what we’ve already done. That’s why we have a forecast for weaker growth.”

Belair said the Bank’s decision to hold rates steady was a positive one, and that its indication that demand and supply were beginning to balance out was “powerful language” for the central bank to use.

“We know that the shelter expense component of the data that they’re tracking is still very high. We know energy is still high,” he said. “At the end of the day, I appreciate the language the Bank of Canada used. I do think the pause was a good decision and one welcomed by many Canadians.”

Signs of optimism for Canada’s housing market

While the national housing market has been mired in a protracted downturn throughout 2023 – with the exception of a brief resurgence in the spring – there are some signs that homebuyer sentiment could be on the rise.

In September 2022, 69% of nesto customers were firmly in the “just looking” category with only 31% “ready to buy,” according to Belair. Most recently, though, there’s been a 10% year-over-year swing in borrower sentiment, with 41% of customers now ready to buy and 59% on the “just looking” side.