Housing market to see higher activity in 2024 – RBC

Houses for sale in Ottawa

While there’s little indication current pent-up demand will ease soon, any recovery is likely to be tempered by poor affordability conditions, the report said, with buyers set to see significant opportunity “only after interest rates have dropped materially,” by the end of 2024 or beginning of next year.

RBC’s forecast expects home resales to jump by 9.2% compared with 2023, hitting 484,400 units. While that would still be short of the last year before the pandemic (490,900 units in 2019), Hogue said lower interest rates and high demand would propel 2025 activity forward by 16%, to 562,100 units.

Indeed, that rebound already looks to be gathering pace in Alberta and Saskatchewan, markets which have not faced the crises caused by plunging affordability in Ontario and British Columbia. In Alberta, RBC expects “above-average” resales growth of 13.5% in 2024, with Saskatchewan predicted to see activity heat up by 9.4%.

What’s the outlook for Canadian home prices in 2024?

Prince Edward Island (15.8%), Nova Scotia (15.5%), and Quebec (10.2%) are also forecast to see resale activity accelerate this year, although RBC believes eyewatering property values in Ontario and BC will weigh down on their recoveries. BC is projected to see a mild 6.4% uptick in resale activity, with Ontario expected to post 7.7% growth.

On the home price front, the national RPS Home Price Index (HPI) is expected to tick down by 1.0% in 2024 before jumping by 3.1% next year. Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan should all see their HPI increase, RBC said, although Ontario, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, BC, and Quebec are all predicted to see mild declines.

Source link
Ottawa New Listings

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *