Canada posts another record home price drop

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Home prices in Canada fell 3.1 per cent from August to September, according to Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, posting the largest monthly decline since the index began in 1999.

The most significant price declines were in:

  1. Victoria (-5.9 per cent),
  2. Vancouver (-3.5 per cent)
  3. Hamilton (-2.1 per cent)

Home prices increased in:

  1. Calgary (+1.2 per cent)
  2. Halifax (+1.1 per cent)
  3. Edmonton (+0.2 per cent)

Since its peak in May, the composite index has already declined by seven per cent. In contrast, during the 2008 financial crisis, prices fell by only 6.2 per cent over the same period and by 9.2 per cent in total over eight months, according to the Home Price Index.

Year-over-year, home prices are still in the green. The country’s largest CMAs recorded an annual gain of six per cent in September.

The economist behind the report, Darren King, expects house prices will continue their contraction and exceed that experienced during the financial crisis of 2008. King anticipates a record cumulative decline of about 15 per cent nationally by the end of 2023, assuming a policy rate peaks around four per cent and the Bank of Canada lowers rates in the second half of 2023.

Although corrections are happening in most markets covered by the index, those that have experienced the most significant price growth over the past two years have also experienced the most significant declines to date. Teranet expects price corrections to be more significant in Ontario, B.C. and the Maritimes.

The Home Price Index is estimated by tracking home prices using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.

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